An earlier ExtraDigital article used thought experiments on choice to help with advanced PPC analysis. This article highlights how the gaming behind TV quiz programmes can be used to deduce some of the best digital marketing strategies.
This is the marketing advice you don’t usually get from Google Analytics as it takes extra analysis using probability theory to determine the best outcomes.
There are many different versions of the ‘Monty Hall’ problem – but a good one quoted on the BBC articles is the game show in which you have the opportunity to win a Cadillac or a goat.
Note: ExtraDigital are fully aware that the above car is not a Cadillac - but this car looks more impressive.
“It imagines a TV game show not unlike Deal or No Deal in which you choose one of three closed doors and win whatever is behind it.
One door conceals a top of the range car (in the game show it was a Cadillac) - behind the other two doors are goats. The game show host knows where the Cadillac is and opens one of the doors that you did not choose. You are duly greeted by a goat, and then offered the chance to switch your choice to the other remaining door. “
Many people now think the chances of winning (a Cadillac) are 50:50 – but mathematicians will know that by switching your choice you win 67% of the time.
Taking a practical example - a good mathematical understanding of the ‘Monty Hall’ problem can help with eCommerce website optimisation through the shopping cart process where the shopper is presented with extra choices. It can also help a savy shopper decide which offer to go for or choice to make, but this is a separate problem to website optimisation. The decision facing the business is what information to present after certain choices have been made. Very few (if any) shopping carts are yet able to customise the checkout process completely so one design (wireframe) must be used for many types of visitor (this is the first choice in the Monty Hall problem). The next set of choices presented to the visitor is what can be optimised. Yet very few web design agencies consider this despite the fact that this can be done without a huge amount of analytics data.
Rachel Cornish is quoted as saying:
"This means that eCommerce marketing managers should spend more time viewing games shows and thinking about Cadillacs and goats when planning new eCommerce websites. Or choose a digital agency that can do this for you."
ExtraDigital have successfully employed statistical analysis and probability theories to model eCommerce or lead generation websites to very significantly increase sales revenue or numbers of leads. They have not (as yet) won any fast cars on games shows.